What Do People Think Is Going To Happen To The Marijuana Industry???

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MendoGiantZ

MendoGiantZ

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I hate to say it but times are changing. I really enjoy what I do and I hope I can always have a career in this industry. I have a feeling (not necessarily my own thought) but that pot is very similar to wine and that it's going to be very difficult for huge companies to take over the industry. Not saying certain people won't start to dominate the main stream market but that there will always be room for people who are good at their craft. I would love to hear everyone's opinion on where they think this industry is going to go in the next couple years.
 
We Solidarity

We Solidarity

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Hate to say it friend but you're at the end - hope you've got some cash saved up so that when it's time to get legal you can go through the motions...there's not much anyone can do to stop the tide especially when our president is undoubtably going to be ushering in the fourth reich. We can still claim licenses, keep our businesses and integrity. They're just going to get their piece, too.
 
B

Burned Haze

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why is this in the Grow Diaries'? when its not a Diary? lol ( not trying to be a bitch or diss, just kinda odd?)

if mod's move the thread over to proper section, i'm game to talk and chat ;)
 
The Terps

The Terps

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I think of it as a craft beer situation. I rarely drink home brew. How many ppl do you know who brew or buy home brew? After that gets broken up into 3 basic sections.
Domestic ex. Bud, Coors, Bush
Hybrid ex. Sierra Nevada, Stone, lost coast.
Craft beer ex. For my area that's Wild Card and Fall River
I roughly figure that people drink
Domestic% 50
Hybrid% 37
Craft% 10
Home brew% 3
With cannabis I predict
Domestic%25
Hybrid%35
Craft%25
Homegrown%15
Unfortunately, I don't think I will be able to stay in the industry more than 3-5 years as a grower maybe as an hourly employee at one of the above mentioned places. I drink beer and enjoy sampling different flavors I don't know ppl who brew it that can make money to live on. I also wouldn't go to far out of my way to buy something from a home brew when there are 5 beers I really enjoy at every store at a more affordable price.
 
Blaze

Blaze

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The biggest problem I think most people will face is dealing with the huge amount of paperwork and other regulatory hoops you have to jump through. The other big problem will be lack of capital. Those two factors are some of the biggest reasons small businesses fail in any industry. Cannabis will almost certainly be taxed at a very high rate, maybe even higher than alcohol and tobacco is. Management of time and money will become a lot more important in the future, as will overall efficiency as the overhead to produce it is going to go up considerably.

Most of the total market will probably be dominated by large companies churning out huge volumes of low quality crap. There will always be a niche for hand crafted high quality buds though. Just look at the beer, wine, and spirits industry. There will still be a certain level of production required to stay in business even for the smallest producers, and that will be well above what most people consider to be a small grow now. If I had to guess I would predict that within a relatively short number of years even growing a 1,000 lbs will be considered 'small' for California. Again look at the wine industry - how many wineries out there have just 1 or 2 people doing all the work? Even the smallest wineries and breweries still employ a considerable number of people and have a production rate far beyond any hobbyist.

I think Seamaiden is correct though - overall we are moving in the right direction. There will certainly be a lot of growing pains and problems to overcome though. One of the biggest things holding the industry back is that growers are so damn fractured and we have no united front for anything, just look at the divide over AUMA. I have actually become fairly disgusted with some of these so-called activists who supposedly are fighting for our right to grow and consume cannabis. Many of them are so unrealistic, so pig headed and stubborn, and so unable to compromise on any level that they do as much damage to the cannabis industry and hold back the legalization movement as much as even the most hard line the prohibitionists do.
 
1diesel1

1diesel1

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I beg to differ, there's a place for us serious farmers in this new industry. You just have to find your place in the market that is going to explode in the next legalization in your state. No matter how small of a grow you have it's the product you produce that's going to get noderiety. All the big rich producers are going to throw out rag for the masses at market prices but we will be producing a product for the conesuer (like all of us) that have pride in our product that will produce the best marijuana that the good old USA MARIJUANA FARMER CAN PRODUCE. That's all I have to say about that. PEACE
 
Freshone

Freshone

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They have been saying you can't sell grow/sell forever and it hasn't stopped anyone yet has it?if they tax it high like you know they will that will just increase the black market more.i think what you will see is people in the movement turn on each other,the big money greed driven larger producers will do everything in their power to shut out home growers,were already seeing it.i f you had a choice would you buy heavily taxed meh blue dream and gorilla glue big producing hybrids or well grown potent buds for 25-40% less from your local contacts?black market ain't going nowhere,just my opinion.
 
Seamaiden

Seamaiden

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If it's too heavily taxed, I agree with you that many people will stick with black market.

However, there's a new group of people using cannabis and they are extremely interested in knowing how it was grown, how clean it is or isn't, and they want consistency of product as well as quality controls. That's just never going to happen even on the gray market.

I believe, but can't be certain without double-checking, that there was yet another addendum to the bills that encompass MMRSA and ostensibly one of these is supposed to make a place at this table for boutique growers. That said, many are still outright banned from doing their thing by local munis, as allowed by MMRSA.
Again look at the wine industry - how many wineries out there have just 1 or 2 people doing all the work? Even the smallest wineries and breweries still employ a considerable number of people and have a production rate far beyond any hobbyist.
Hobbyist level wine is when your front yard is a vineyard (quarter acre) and you sell to a vintner. I think. Maybe?
One of the biggest things holding the industry back is that growers are so damn fractured and we have no united front for anything, just look at the divide over AUMA. I have actually become fairly disgusted with some of these so-called activists who supposedly are fighting for our right to grow and consume cannabis. Many of them are so unrealistic, so pig headed and stubborn, and so unable to compromise on any level that they do as much damage to the cannabis industry and hold back the legalization movement as much as even the most hard line the prohibitionists do.
OMG, it's unbelievable how 'we' are with each other. We're supposed to be on the same team, for Christ's sakes! But the level of rudeness alone makes me shake my head and want to be uninvolved, I find it so disgusting the way folks will treat each other, even over this ONE issue. I think you've nailed it on the head, because the end result is still prohibition.
Good luck guys the first step will be them not letting you sell your weed to the dispensary, so for those who think they will be selling there home grown at any price is just not going to happen legally anyway.
That is correct. Now everyone has to be permitted and it's being treated like alcoholic beverages--no vertical integration, every step is separate and separated. If you wish to become a cultivator, you need your permits that also permit you to sell to a distributor.
 
1diesel1

1diesel1

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They have been saying you can't sell grow/sell forever and it hasn't stopped anyone yet has it?if they tax it high like you know they will that will just increase the black market more.i think what you will see is people in the movement turn on each other,the big money greed driven larger producers will do everything in their power to shut out home growers,were already seeing it.i f you had a choice would you buy heavily taxed meh blue dream and gorilla glue big producing hybrids or well grown potent buds for 25-40% less from your local contacts?black market ain't going nowhere,just my opinion.
Black market is just getting bigger. Here in Oregun most medical growers are giving up there medical cards and going underground. I personally have people coming to me wanting QPs for there personal use because the price at the dispensarys are so expensive. it's a no brainer to save money buying in quantity then gettin jerked by the state tax. Come on man $15 fucking bucks a gram fuck them and there fucking tax. Besides I brows these dispensarys and mostly what there pedaling is a bunch of shit I used to smoke when I was 15 back in 1985. So fuck the state black markets Gona BOOM. Thank god for legalization. YEEEHAWWW!!!!!!
 
Tank707

Tank707

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The money is going to be in small business/craft/specialty strain/ small batch shit. Not everyone just wants to buy a pack of pre rolled. There are a lot of people that buy $20 grams from dispensaries.. Everyday.. There's money there's its just going to have be by the book.
 
Blaze

Blaze

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Hobbyist level wine is when your front yard is a vineyard (quarter acre) and you sell to a vintner. I think. Maybe?

In California you can produce 200 gallons of wine per year for personal and family use as a hobbyist. You cannot sell it.

My main point being that when I look at even the smallest family run wineries and smallest breweries in our area, they still employ a considerable number of people, especially during harvest - far more than you see with grow scenes. You just don't see any one man wineries or breweries actually making money, the scale of production is too small and the work load too large.

If small farmers are to survive we need to be looking to increase efficiency, expand production, and start thinking about banding together into co-ops or something similar. A single lone farmer will not stay in business.
 
Seamaiden

Seamaiden

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You can sell the grapes you've grown to a vintner, as I understand it, then they can be combined with those of others and made into wine by the vintner. That's what I was told by a local whose front yard is a small vineyard.

The thing about a cooperative is exactly what I'm thinking of. There are, and have been for many years, farmer groups who sell their produce collectively. They do this to help ensure they all get a better price, and buyers are able to fill more markets, or larger markets.
 
chickenman

chickenman

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In California you can produce 200 gallons of wine per year for personal and family use as a hobbyist. You cannot sell it.

My main point being that when I look at even the smallest family run wineries and smallest breweries in our area, they still employ a considerable number of people, especially during harvest - far more than you see with grow scenes. You just don't see any one man wineries or breweries actually making money, the scale of production is too small and the work load too large.

If small farmers are to survive we need to be looking to increase efficiency, expand production, and start thinking about banding together into co-ops or something similar. A single lone farmer will not stay in business.
The industry wants to crush small timers like a bug....
 
LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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Marijuana will be desheduled to schedule 2 in the next year. It will be highly regulated and over taxed. Look at the guidelines on alcohol and tobacco. The writing is on the wall.
I disagree. It is already highly regulated and taxed, and it most definitely won't be re-classified to schedule 2. They would have to recognize it's medical value, and that isn't going to happen.

There is simply more money in it being illegal rather than taxed and legal. Uncle Sam is already getting his cut, there is literally no reason to re-classify it, from their point of view.

Why do you think it will get re-scheduled? Alcohol and tobacco are completely different and it is unfair to use that as an example here. The reason is that alcohol and tobacco are legal in all 50 states, and marijuana is illegal in all 50 states. Federal law trumps state law, and federal law sees marijuana as an illegal schedule one drug with no recognized medical benefit. What magic event happened that would suddenly make pot legal? What about places like Nebraska or Kansas, states that apparently abhor marijuana. Do you think they will vote for or against reclassification?

What do you mean by 'the writing is on the wall'? The only thing I see written on the wall is that 'Call Becky for a good time 720-655-5555'. That might be because it's so shitty in this bathroom. Smells like ath
 
1diesel1

1diesel1

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The states that have legalized marijuana have only legalized for one reason revenue. Those states don't give a shit about federal law. They have done this for one reason. to fill their own personal crooked political pockets from the kick backs there going to get from the meetings they had during the beginning process schmoozing with the big time growers that they kissed ass making the rules with. I've seen it here in Oregun. Take for instance the first rule of a legal grow here you had to be a Oregun resident for 2 years. That lasted about id say a month. Who got the pay off there. The first legal permit that was given was given to Bill Schonely long time Portland trail blazer broadcaster and local T.V. Star. who's ass did he grease. I know farmers here that are big time that can't even get on the list. Back to my point once more states legalize and the Feds realize oh shit these states are making good revenue then they'll point there little point heads into the states regulations and just take there cut rite off the top. Once politicians get involved your fucked.
 
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