What Do People Think Is Going To Happen To The Marijuana Industry???

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LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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The states that have legalized marijuana have only legalized for one reason revenue. Those states don't give a shit about federal law. They have done this for one reason. to fill their own personal crooked political pockets from the kick backs there going to get from the meetings they had during the beginning process schmoozing with the big time growers that they kissed ass making the rules with. I've seen it here in Oregun. Take for instance the first rule of a legal grow here you had to be a Oregun resident for 2 years. That lasted about id say a month. Who got the pay off there. The first legal permit that was given was given to Bill Schonely long time Portland trail blazer broadcaster and local T.V. Star. who's ass did he grease. I know farmers here that are big time that can't even get on the list. Back to my point once more states legalize and the Feds realize oh shit these states are making good revenue then they'll point there little point heads into the states regulations and just take there cut rite off the top. Once politicians get involved your fucked.
Respectfully, you are completely off base.

Specifically, your statement that 'states don't give a shit about federal law' is incorrect.

To use an example, when the legal drinking age was raised to 21, the feds tied state funding for roads and construction to increasing the age of consumption of alcohol. States that didn't comply and raise the drinking age to 21 missed out on federal funds for roads, something that states can't or couldn't afford. So yes, states do give a shit about federal law. You and your buddies might not care, but the letter agencies most definitely care.

Accusing people of getting kickbacks or paid under the table are ridiculous claims unless you can substantiate what you accuse, and you can't. I might be off, but you seem to hold a grudge against bigger corporations and deeper pockets. Of course money influences politics, why would marijuana legislation be different?

Back to my point once more states legalize and the Feds realize oh shit these states are making good revenue then they'll point there little point heads into the states regulations and just take there cut rite off the top. Once politicians get involved your fucked.

Can you further explain what you are trying to say here? How would the 'Feds' point their little heads into the state regulations and just take [their] cut​
off the top? Would they cross out Colorado and put USA? I'm not familiar with feds taking cuts off the top, and I don't understand how that would happen, or even what that is.

How are policitians not involved already? Or are you talking federal politicians will get jealous of the greedy state politicians that are already making money screwing small time operations and they want their cut?

I am so confused what your point is or was I have a headache. Care to clarify?​
 
The Terps

The Terps

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What do you guys think it will be like? I mean like straight farm to table terps farms sells out of terps store front? Or from farm to regulated distributor. Like terps farms gives it seas distribution where it may be processed tested or maybe packaged to be sold say a storefront like chicken scraps, blazes buds, or mendo max?
 
1diesel1

1diesel1

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Respectfully, you are completely off base.

Specifically, your statement that 'states don't give a shit about federal law' is incorrect.

To use an example, when the legal drinking age was raised to 21, the feds tied state funding for roads and construction to increasing the age of consumption of alcohol. States that didn't comply and raise the drinking age to 21 missed out on federal funds for roads, something that states can't or couldn't afford. So yes, states do give a shit about federal law. You and your buddies might not care, but the letter agencies most definitely care.

Accusing people of getting kickbacks or paid under the table are ridiculous claims unless you can substantiate what you accuse, and you can't. I might be off, but you seem to hold a grudge against bigger corporations and deeper pockets. Of course money influences politics, why would marijuana legislation be different?

Back to my point once more states legalize and the Feds realize oh shit these states are making good revenue then they'll point there little point heads into the states regulations and just take there cut rite off the top. Once politicians get involved your fucked.

Can you further explain what you are trying to say here? How would the 'Feds' point their little heads into the state regulations and just take [their] cut​
off the top? Would they cross out Colorado and put USA? I'm not familiar with feds taking cuts off the top, and I don't understand how that would happen, or even what that is.

How are policitians not involved already? Or are you talking federal politicians will get jealous of the greedy state politicians that are already making money screwing small time operations and they want their cut?

I am so confused what your point is or was I have a headache. Care to clarify?​
Respectfully if they give a shit about federal law why did they break it? The people voted it in but the politicians let it become a initiative. As far as kickbacks, come on man were talking about politicians. I don't know how it is in your state as far as crooked politicians here in Oregun it's bad Google our little John kitzhaber and his crooked girlfriend. A cut off the top in the political world is a tax. most likely will be the tacktik the pointy head Feds will use on the states it's easy and clean. I hold no grudge against bigger pockets or corporations. The reason there screwing smaller operations is there not letting them in. Point, legalization on a federal level is another tax. Sorry I was also venting. I did not mean to give you a headache. Your not one of those conglomerate big wigs are ya. Lol
 
LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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Respectfully if they give a shit about federal law why did they break it? The people voted it in but the politicians let it become a initiative. As far as kickbacks, come on man were talking about politicians. I don't know how it is in your state as far as crooked politicians here in Oregun it's bad Google our little John kitzhaber and his crooked girlfriend. A cut off the top in the political world is a tax. most likely will be the tacktik the pointy head Feds will use on the states it's easy and clean. I hold no grudge against bigger pockets or corporations. The reason there screwing smaller operations is there not letting them in. Point, legalization on a federal level is another tax. Sorry I was also venting. I did not mean to give you a headache. Your not one of those conglomerate big wigs are ya. Lol
It's all good, no headaches. I do not give credence to anecdotal evidence, but I would agree that politicians are corrupt and the system is broken. Unless I see evidence to the contrary, I do not believe there are pot businesses that are giving bribes/kickbacks/rebates to those who oversee the industry like the MMED. Their pockets are too deep and they have too much potential exposure to even risk it. Why engage in illegal practices when you already paid to play legally? I'm sure your mileage varies with your locale.

Douglas County is planning/seeking to enact an ordinance that would limit grows like Denver does with their 12 plant count max sometime this year. Since retail and medical outlets are not allowed, I imagine a case could be made for caregivers who want higher plant counts or more patients. I remember the poster who showed documentation that there were no other nearby locations to obtain medicine so this caregiver was allowed to have more than the law allowed. I forget the type of exception, and I don't know if that poster is still around or not, or if that particular exception still exists. Local towns/townships/HOA's in Douglas are waiting to see if there are any restrictions made via legislation. I think it stands a chance since this county did not vote to approve recreational sales and the population is older and more conservative. At least that's how I see it.

I still don't see how this limit on plant counts could be enforced without search and seizure, but IANAL. I know of a particular spot with two patients that have 99 plant counts, they have had two knock and talks, one last fall and one this spring. Over a hundred plants at harvest and another 175 little gals this spring, no issues. LEO in Douglas County generally leave people alone if they have their shit together, a nice benefit of the conservative and older residents combined with changing attitudes about marijuana.

I think I just contradicted myself eleventy times.
 
Seamaiden

Seamaiden

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I just imagined what it would be like to be locked up with you, and it was a circus. LMAO!!
What do you guys think it will be like? I mean like straight farm to table terps farms sells out of terps store front? Or from farm to regulated distributor. Like terps farms gives it seas distribution where it may be processed tested or maybe packaged to be sold say a storefront like chicken scraps, blazes buds, or mendo max?
The way it's set up with MMRSA here in California it *must* go through a distributor, like most alcohol. Hopefully, one day, we might be able to treat it more like farm-to-fork, or like vintners do by doing wine tastings and selling directly from their cellars. That's what I'd like to see, instead of strictly via distributor.
 
chickenman

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I just imagined what it would be like to be locked up with you, and it was a circus. LMAO!!
Here's what I got in mind for us...
Hcf3
 
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GrowGod

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I always have more plAnts then "allowed", don't let a peep of smell out the door and you won't have a problem:smoking:Unless you go on a rage threatening to kill people like I did 6 years ago. Then you will get caught.
 
G gnome

G gnome

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I hate to say it but times are changing. I really enjoy what I do and I hope I can always have a career in this industry. I have a feeling (not necessarily my own thought) but that pot is very similar to wine and that it's going to be very difficult for huge companies to take over the industry. Not saying certain people won't start to dominate the main stream market but that there will always be room for people who are good at their craft. I would love to hear everyone's opinion on where they think this industry is going to go in the next couple years.

I hope ur right man......


Phillip Morris bought 50k acres in the golden triangle. ....scary
 
LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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Big Tobacco isn't going to touch pot without legalization. They make plenty of money selling tobacco. Places like China have more smokers than the entire population of the United States. Big Tobacco isn't hurting for money by a long shot, the risk/reward completely removes it from consideration until legalization occurs. The two big tobacco companies are not going to have anything to do with marijuana in Colorado except for fueling conspiracy theories on pot sites. Gonzales v. Raich ruled that congress can criminalize production and use of marijuana even in states where it's legal.

http://hightimes.com/business/radical-rant-why-big-tobacco-taking-over-marijuana-is-a-stupid-scare/
-Indeed, perusing through some of the most recently released documents from Big Tobacco lawsuits has shown that in the 1970s, companies like R.J. Reynolds and Philip Morris were investigating how they would profit from a world of legalized marijuana. Nobody has found any land deeds in Northern California belonging to these corporations, but lack of that proof hasn’t stopped the legend.
I feel dirty for using a link from high times, but I think it's a valid point. The actual study is pretty interesting.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/04/11/cigarettes-and-marijuana/70746772/
-"We continually evaluate opportunities for portfolio enhancement but focus our efforts on companies and products designed to meet the preferences of adult tobacco consumers and companies where we feel we could add value," said Richard Smith of RJR. "None of Reynolds American's operating companies is evaluating entering the U.S. market with commercial brands of marijuana."


-But that doesn’t mean that a real marijuana industry will grow out of the country’s changing sentiments toward pot — with large-scale distribution, marketing, and retail sales — any time soon. For that to happen, the federal government would have to do a lot more than merely back off and recognize “state’s rights.” It would have to repeal the federal laws banning the possession, use, and distribution of marijuana. And that might take a long while yet, given that the politics in, for example, Georgia, are a lot different from the politics in Washington, Colorado, and California (even Oregon isn’t quite there yet — its ballot measure failed on Election Day). There needs to be a national consensus, and the nation isn’t there yet.
And until full federal repeal of prohibition, a multitude of insurmountable barriers will remain in place. The chief one is simple economics: the industry simply can’t scale to a degree that would attract investors (who would be scared of investing anyway). One of the many reasons that pot costs so much — about $300 an ounce on average — is that growers must keep their operations relatively small and, usually, hidden. Forget for the moment the direct impact that pot’s illegality (meaning, risk) has on prices: the costs of production alone are enormous just because economies of scale aren’t achievable. Even if the state police are no longer coming after growers, the feds might be.

Then there is the problem that medical-marijuana businesses already face in states where they are allowed: vendors of all kinds of necessary services can’t or don’t want to deal with them. Banks won’t lend them money. Insurers won’t insure them. Many landlords won’t rent to them. Credit-card companies won’t process their payments. If your customers can’t sign for something with dignity, and you can’t obtain health insurance for your employees, it’s unlikely that your business will ever scale.

It's Altria, not Philip Morris.
 
xavier7995

xavier7995

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I think the comparison to the alcohol industry is apt, but I (and we) have not been accurate about where in the product life cycle we are. The common case being made is that we are at the dawn of a golden Era similar to microbreweries. I have held that belief and made the argument. I no longer think that is right. We are more in the stages just after prohibition was repealed where regionally markets are developing with their unique aspects. We still need to through those developing, then the conglomerate stages similar to the 70s through 90s where the product becomes homogeneous. Then we can finally have a large enough market to support the craft mj markets that we hope for. I think we are going to see way way more offerings similar to leaves by snoop. He and wiz Khalifa can battle it out like bud, bud light, and miller.
 
LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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I think the comparison to the alcohol industry is apt, but I (and we) have not been accurate about where in the product life cycle we are. The common case being made is that we are at the dawn of a golden Era similar to microbreweries. I have held that belief and made the argument. I no longer think that is right. We are more in the stages just after prohibition was repealed where regionally markets are developing with their unique aspects. We still need to through those developing, then the conglomerate stages similar to the 70s through 90s where the product becomes homogeneous. Then we can finally have a large enough market to support the craft mj markets that we hope for. I think we are going to see way way more offerings similar to leaves by snoop. He and wiz Khalifa can battle it out like bud, bud light, and miller.
I think you are right.
Leaves by Snoop. At shitwell. I was on board until that. Growing up with rap music, I never thought I would say this, but I would never smoke pot with snoop dog, at least assuming he's still selling his name to deep pockets. 'Leaves by snoop', no thanks. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he doesn't even smoke that shit. You know, AssTrain by Wiz has a nice ring to it though.
 
grayarea

grayarea

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I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he doesn't even smoke that shit..

Lol yea they have different rules. gets boring if he only smokes that shit and its offensive if he wont.

kinda funny its only for sale in Co and one of them is labeled cali kush instead of Co kush.
 
sanvanalona

sanvanalona

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Well let me tell you what I think. Cannabis prices are going to drop fast and drastically, this is starting in Colorado and will soon be the norm in most legal states. In California the price of outdoor units was 2500+ eight years ago and has dropped to an average of 1400 with all indications that the price will continue to drop and this is in a grey market with very little competition from the "big guys". Once legalization kicks in the true price of cannabis will start to prevail, most likely in the area of 100-500 per unit depending on quality and strain and that will eliminate most of the market place. Unfortunately, unlike alcohol great herb can be grown in very large batches and that will be problematic for everyone who considers themselves a craft grower. If you can find a way to be competitive in the low price range then it will be like most businesses. That's my two cents. For now don't be afraid of paper work, get politically involved, and mine the fuck out of this green gold while it's still a reality!
 
grayarea

grayarea

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For now don't be afraid of paper work, get politically involved, and mine the fuck out of this green gold while it's still a reality!

they wont postpone politics around crops. from a buying and selling viewpoint your advice works. not for growing and selling though.

there hasnt been a good northern lights strain since forever so just that name and a normal name wont sell it but if you add snoops name then it sells regardless of what it is. getting your name permanently associated with weed is hard to do or un do. if its not permanent then you cant sell stuff like northern lights without getting dissed. once its permanent then whatever you have gets accepted and only dissed by other people trying to be in the permanent weed dealer place.

they remove 1/2 of the work that most growers normally do. which is kinda nice to think about. always someone trying to add that part back though which ruins the point of letting them remove it in the first place.
 
sanvanalona

sanvanalona

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they wont postpone politics around crops. from a buying and selling viewpoint your advice works. not for growing and selling though.

Not sure what you mean here, politics absolutely effects the cannabis industry. Look at the differences between the coasts and the policies towards cannabis.
 
xavier7995

xavier7995

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I would buy the hell out of some NL :)

I am curious how the current pot celebrity stuff will play out. I....it's really hard to express how I feel on that topic. Curiosity mostly. It's not like there are really liquor celebrities. The pot celebs got there by being the public face of an illegal and seedy business. What do they do now? It's not edgy when you buy weed from the store. Nobody looks at duffman like "whoa, who's that cool guy."

The other thing I am curious about is what sort of celebrity it will be. Cheech and Chong or snoop are one sort, but then you also have the growing, breeding type that are only celebs in certain circles and unrecognized by the masses. Will the growers become famous and do endorsements?
 
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LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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Well let me tell you what I think. Cannabis prices are going to drop fast and drastically, this is starting in Colorado and will soon be the norm in most legal states. In California the price of outdoor units was 2500+ eight years ago and has dropped to an average of 1400 with all indications that the price will continue to drop and this is in a grey market with very little competition from the "big guys". Once legalization kicks in the true price of cannabis will start to prevail, most likely in the area of 100-500 per unit depending on quality and strain and that will eliminate most of the market place. Unfortunately, unlike alcohol great herb can be grown in very large batches and that will be problematic for everyone who considers themselves a craft grower. If you can find a way to be competitive in the low price range then it will be like most businesses. That's my two cents. For now don't be afraid of paper work, get politically involved, and mine the fuck out of this green gold while it's still a reality!
I still fail to understand why so many folks operate under the assumption of soon-to-be-legalization, ignoring the fact that (I think) that marijuana won't be reclassified anytime soon and will remain illegal under federal law.
It just seems like quite the stretch to act now as if it's legal. It's nice to talk about, but it's unrealistic and not nearly as simple when we are talking about such a large population that has no experience with 'legal' or quasi-legal weed.

I think there are growers out there who already have become efficient to the point that their break-even point is about $500 per unit, and the bottom of the market still keeps them in the game. I think that's the closest we will get to any type of 'true' cost. The cost is whatever the market is willing to pay. I know plenty of rec smokers who are perfectly happy spending a hundred bucks on a quarter or half when they can't get anything but brickweed and beasters wherever they may be.
 
sanvanalona

sanvanalona

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I still fail to understand why so many folks operate under the assumption of soon-to-be-legalization, ignoring the fact that (I think) that marijuana won't be reclassified anytime soon and will remain illegal under federal law.
It just seems like quite the stretch to act now as if it's legal. It's nice to talk about, but it's unrealistic and not nearly as simple when we are talking about such a large population that has no experience with 'legal' or quasi-legal weed.

I think there are growers out there who already have become efficient to the point that their break-even point is about $500 per unit, and the bottom of the market still keeps them in the game. I think that's the closest we will get to any type of 'true' cost. The cost is whatever the market is willing to pay. I know plenty of rec smokers who are perfectly happy spending a hundred bucks on a quarter or half when they can't get anything but brickweed and beasters wherever they may be.
Well let's talk about legality: where were we as a country ten years ago in regards to rec and medical cannabis? Where are we today? What are the real costs of production?

Ten years ago the only dispensaries operating were in California and they were constantly getting shut down for a variety of reasons. As one would get closed, another five would open making enforcement extremely difficult and ineffective. Ten years ago doing anything medical was far more risky than today, people were actually getting raided for six plants in places that grow tremendous amounts of cannabis now(Nevada city, 04) and most people would not think of ever operating a dispensary. Under these conditions it was feasible to pay 100 a quarter because that cost reflected the risks associated in the production costs. Now fast forward to today, there are dispensaries operating in: Maine, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii, Maryland, and a number more states are either on the way or have some form of watered down legislation in the works, effectively the associated risks have gone down tremendously as the majority of growers and retailers operating within their states laws are not being raided and able to operate more like a legal business. The price inevitably must go down on all levels as more people enter the supply side and the risks are lowered.

Secondly, it appears that cannabis will be rescheduled down to schedule 2 sometime before years end and his will be the entry point for some of the bigger industry guys. Essentially the dominoes in cannabis legalization have started to fall and the industry is going to be going through massive tidal waves as it stabilizes its market.

I just received a rec license in Oregon and can tell you personally that the paper work alone will eliminate 95 percent of the current growers from even trying, this will help keep prices up for a few years but as soon as people start stepping up and stop being afraid of legalization the prices will surely plummet. At the moment, trimming aside, I'm able to produce top shelf cannabis of many different strains for under 100 dollars a unit, I'm just a simpleton doing what I have compiled over years and can only fathom what the big boys with never ending resources will accomplish.
 
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