What Do People Think Is Going To Happen To The Marijuana Industry???

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Seamaiden

Seamaiden

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I think the comparison to the alcohol industry is apt, but I (and we) have not been accurate about where in the product life cycle we are. The common case being made is that we are at the dawn of a golden Era similar to microbreweries. I have held that belief and made the argument. I no longer think that is right. We are more in the stages just after prohibition was repealed where regionally markets are developing with their unique aspects. We still need to through those developing, then the conglomerate stages similar to the 70s through 90s where the product becomes homogeneous. Then we can finally have a large enough market to support the craft mj markets that we hope for. I think we are going to see way way more offerings similar to leaves by snoop. He and wiz Khalifa can battle it out like bud, bud light, and miller.
Interesting analysis. IIRC you're in CO, right? Are you basing this on what you've been observing there? I'm curious to know how MMRSA compares to CO's laws. Of course, MMRSA is still strictly medical, but so far almost everyone's prepared for AUMA to pass and are making moves to be better positioned for its passage.
Well let me tell you what I think. Cannabis prices are going to drop fast and drastically, this is starting in Colorado and will soon be the norm in most legal states. In California the price of outdoor units was 2500+ eight years ago and has dropped to an average of 1400 with all indications that the price will continue to drop and this is in a grey market with very little competition from the "big guys". Once legalization kicks in the true price of cannabis will start to prevail, most likely in the area of 100-500 per unit depending on quality and strain and that will eliminate most of the market place. Unfortunately, unlike alcohol great herb can be grown in very large batches and that will be problematic for everyone who considers themselves a craft grower. If you can find a way to be competitive in the low price range then it will be like most businesses. That's my two cents. For now don't be afraid of paper work, get politically involved, and mine the fuck out of this green gold while it's still a reality!
Based on the tax legislation that's breezing through the legislature, I'm not so sure about that. We have a couple of issues, taxation rates, and how those taxes are calculated. Right now it's supposed to be based on canopy. The problem seems to lie in how canopy is defined. I'm reading that some munis are calling everything under the roof 'canopy' and that includes aisles, storage areas, etc. Those tax rates, however they're calculated, if high enough, are going to keep prices high, and probably keep the black market alive for a few years yet.
I still fail to understand why so many folks operate under the assumption of soon-to-be-legalization, ignoring the fact that (I think) that marijuana won't be reclassified anytime soon and will remain illegal under federal law.
Based on my reading, the DEA will be rescheduling to Sched. II, and all indications are that it's going to be in the next handful of years. I'm surmising that these people are basing their ideas and opinions on a combination of this information and how other legalized states are currently being handled.
Secondly, it appears that cannabis will be rescheduled down to schedule 2 sometime before years end and his will be the entry point for some of the bigger industry guys.
POSSIBLY. The DEA keeps putting it off, they were supposed to make an announcement last month. The GOP in the legislature have blocked efforts from that angle as well (which is why people should be involved and write or call their representatives, this is precisely where the rubber meets the road).
 
Purpletrain

Purpletrain

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As fast as everyone got there licences to grow or what ever is as fast as it will be taken away ,,
Government see's and Huge multi billion dollar corps are probably already hashing out deals under the table ..
Its a matter of time this is why its still a schedule drug The Government will never let you be fully legal ,
How stupid we must be to think they would would you give up power or the Say if you were in there shoes ? Hell no
Will there be private growers out there For sure think of it like a Franchise,, with few stipulations like one must have 2 million dollars of there own money non borrowed

I honestly think The gov has been using everyone as Guinea pigs in the MJ industry. its big money sure everyone will be allowed to grow probably few plants once rules change ..
and for the bigger grow licenses they will choke you out by stupid insurances or yearly licenses making literally impossible to operate stupid water charge or something to that effect to bankrupt you
 
xavier7995

xavier7995

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Interesting analysis. IIRC you're in CO, right? Are you basing this on what you've been observing there? I'm curious to know how MMRSA compares to CO's laws. Of course, MMRSA is still strictly medical, but so far almost everyone's prepared for AUMA to pass and are making moves to be better positioned for its passage.
.

It is based mostly on the idea that different regions of the country will have their own preferences and with the patchwork of laws being different in each state, it should give rise to several distinct markets. For instance, California is fond of outdoor organics vs. New England having the preference for indoor hydro. It will take a while for a major national producer to be able to consolidate those markets. CO has an insane lust for hash that far exceeds anything I have ever seen. I am not all that familiar with the CA laws, but in chatting with some folks in that state they are supposed to be close to what is in CO...per the Californians. The conversation did come about as they were getting ready for rec compliance.

My ideas very well may become moot if any sort of national legalization action occurs; though I don't think simply rescheduling it would effect my prediction. Really looking forward to all aspects of the plant getting opened up to scientific research with the reschedule. Big pet peeve is what goofy buggers us mj growers act like compared to people growing other plants, can't wait to have research with some level of depth.

For the full legal aspect, I think the government will get their piece of the pie either way. They can keep profiting under prohibition as they have been, by profit I mean jobs and such, not so much bottom line dollar figures as the government has a different set of priorities than a business. Or, they can start getting tax revenue off the sales and help develop the industry to replace job loss from drug enforcement related stuff. The full on legalization is more of a social/moral argument that needs to be debated; I do not see economics as a driver...though I am sure it is.
 
LocalGrowGuy

LocalGrowGuy

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As fast as everyone got there licences to grow or what ever is as fast as it will be taken away ,,
Government see's and Huge multi billion dollar corps are probably already hashing out deals under the table ..
Its a matter of time this is why its still a schedule drug The Government will never let you be fully legal ,
How stupid we must be to think they would would you give up power or the Say if you were in there shoes ? Hell no
Will there be private growers out there For sure think of it like a Franchise,, with few stipulations like one must have 2 million dollars of there own money non borrowed

I honestly think The gov has been using everyone as Guinea pigs in the MJ industry. its big money sure everyone will be allowed to grow probably few plants once rules change ..
and for the bigger grow licenses they will choke you out by stupid insurances or yearly licenses making literally impossible to operate stupid water charge or something to that effect to bankrupt you
Are you joking? It is difficult for me to take someone seriously or to even understand when posts look like they were typed by Helen Keller. purpletrain, what the hell are you trying to say here?

Specifically, what do you mean about insurance? Being a state-based regulated model, health insurance will never cover a claim arising from marijuana, medical or otherwise. The language in the law, the actual text, not someone's interpretation, specifically addresses this and it says that insurance companies are not able to be held liable for marijuana. You might call it a prescription, but as far as your health insurance goes, no way. We were sneaking pot buys through HSA and FSA's but that well ran dry pretty quickly.

Seamaiden, I forget you are in Cali. I will give you legalization in a 'handful' of years, but we'll have to agree to disagree on the timeline. I do not believe legalization will happen across the board. I don't think it will ever rise to the front of any national elections, it will always be a state-by-state process, unless something major changes. It seems to me that the industry here in Colorado is somewhat steady. There are always shops changing hands and I can't keep up with all of the name changes and rules and regs and medical vs rec and the political atmosphere's in those areas where legalization is moving forward fairly quickly. I see nebraska and kansas as good examples that some states are still pretty far away from legalization. I do not see how any sort of constituional amendment or supreme court case that would establish precedent or otherwise remove the enforcement power of the commerce clause as it relates to interstate commerce. That's how obamanure was upheld by the supremes, saying congress can in fact force Americans to purchase insurance (the Individual Mandate that was upheld by the SC).

I think it is important to note the dissenting opinion on that case, as I believe the same thing will happen to keep marijuana illegal at the federal level. I do not see Congress deciding to control marijuana by making it legal. If we are talking about legalization, then I think there are more voters in non-pot states than pro-pot voters in pot states. I think I said that correctly. What would happen to the population currently in jail for marijuana offenses? If it's legal then why are they in jail? Should marijuana convictions be tossed or re-tried if legalization occurs? I fail to see any likelihood of that happening, let alone full legalization. Don't we have to get over the 'pot is bad and dangerous' argument before we can even discuss it being legal? How would legalization work in conservative states that hate marijuana?

Justice Thomas had a dissenting comment on the ACA:

I dissent for the reasons stated in our joint opinion, but I write separately to say a word about the Commerce Clause. The joint dissent and The Chief Justice correctly apply our precedents to conclude that the Individual Mandate is beyond the power granted to Congress under the Commerce Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clause. Under those precedents, Congress may regulate “economic activity [that] substantially affects interstate commerce.” United States v. Lopez, 514 U. S. 549, 560 (1995) . I adhere to my view that “the very notion of a ‘substantial effects’ test under the Commerce Clause is inconsistent with the original understanding of Congress’ powers and with this Court’s early Commerce Clause cases.” United States v. Morrison, 529 U. S. 598, 627 (2000) (Thomas, J., concurring); see also Lopez, supra, at 584–602 (Thomas, J., concurring); Gonzales v. Raich, 545 U. S. 1–69 (2005) (Thomas, J., dissenting). As I have explained, the Court’s continued use of that test “has encouraged the Federal Government to persist in its view that the Commerce Clause has virtually no limits.” Morrison, supra, at 627. The Government’s unprecedented claim in this suit that it may regulate not only economic activity but also inactivity that substantially affects interstate commerce is a case in point.
 
GrowGod

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I'm flabbergasted on the complaint of outdoor going from 2500-1400. Are you kidding me???:speechless: Try going from 5200-1800 for indoor and tell me how you feel.:(
 
xavier7995

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I see nebraska and kansas as good examples that some states are still pretty far away from legalization.

If we are talking about legalization, then I think there are more voters in non-pot states than pro-pot voters in pot states.

I do concur it will be state by state...and LOVE IT. Fuck you Kansas, stay broke and backwards. It makes it way easier for me to decide what states to not visit or live in. Conversely those agricultural states that hate devil weed could/would see one hell of a boom in their farming economies, not to mention spinoff industry like paper and such. It would shift the death of farming that has been going on for however long. Think of all the weird ways we came up with to use corn and soybeans.

I think we will see a full legalization within 20 years. My guess is the Midwest and south will fight that shit like it's integration, but well...the east and west coast voting blocks that do or will have a majority in favor of legalization are much more important to carry than Idaho or kansas. Ohio and Pennsylvania passing it on a state level would be pretty huge for that as you would need the few important middle states like IL and MI that already went for it.
 
grayarea

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I'm flabbergasted on the complaint of outdoor going from 2500-1400. Are you kidding me???:speechless: Try going from 5200-1800 for indoor and tell me how you feel.:(


what about the part where after you buy soil its like 800$ for a season of outdoor (200+lbs) not counting trimming . if you only pay in product then you never have to pay for trimming. a lot easier to pay with product then keeping $30,000 around for that reason..
 
GrowGod

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what about the part where after you buy soil its like 800$ for a season of outdoor (200+lbs) not counting trimming . if you only pay in product then you never have to pay for trimming. a lot easier to pay with product then keeping $30,000 around for that reason..
Ya so even at half that 100 lb.s. x 1400=140,000k - 30k for trimming and go over board and -20k for dirt nutes and pesticides(lol) your still mKing 90k profit and don't pay utilities:smoking:
 
LocalGrowGuy

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what about the part where after you buy soil its like 800$ for a season of outdoor (200+lbs) not counting trimming . if you only pay in product then you never have to pay for trimming. a lot easier to pay with product then keeping $30,000 around for that reason..
I didn't know soil companies let you pay them in weed. You will pay for trimmers one way or the other, they don't work for free. How many ounces does a cubic yard of FFOF cost to be delivered?
 
LocalGrowGuy

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If anyone is feeling down today, watch this and remember, at least you aren't with these chick magnets:
 
grayarea

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Ya so even at half that 100 lb.s. x 1400=140,000k - 30k for trimming and go over board and -20k for dirt nutes and pesticides(lol) your still mKing 90k profit and don't pay utilities:smoking:

goes from 90k profit to $0 pretty fast though.

I didn't know soil companies let you pay them in weed. You will pay for trimmers one way or the other, they don't work for free.

looks like you tried to time travel with an almanac and got 2 things mixed up. "one way or the other" = desperation on either side? i kinda like to avoid that stuff. if you tell them first you only pay with product then its not one way or the other its just your way.
How many ounces does a cubic yard of FFOF cost to be delivered?
costs as many ounces as it takes. costs less if you sell them by the gram then if you sell them by the 50pack.
 
LocalGrowGuy

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goes from 90k profit to $0 pretty fast though.



looks like you tried to time travel with an almanac and got 2 things mixed up. "one way or the other" = desperation on either side? i kinda like to avoid that stuff. if you tell them first you only pay with product then its not one way or the other its just your way.

costs as many ounces as it takes. costs less if you sell them by the gram then if you sell them by the 50pack.
I try reading your posts in Morgan Freeman's voice. It's not quite titty sprinkles, but close.
Tittysprinkles

Seriously though, what the eff.
from:
"what about the part where after you buy soil its like 800$ for a season of outdoor (200+lbs) not counting trimming"
to:
"looks like you tried to time travel with an almanac and got 2 things mixed up."

Can I get a 50pack of ounces by the gram, if I promise to time travel and not forget the almanac?

Wait, what about Kyle?
SeenKyle
 
grayarea

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from:
"what about the part where after you buy soil its like 800$ for a season of outdoor (200+lbs) not counting trimming"
to:
"looks like you tried to time travel with an almanac and got 2 things mixed up."

you cant buy trimming first. or pay for soil with ounces you haven't grown yet .unless you use a 3rd party.

Can I get a 50pack of ounces by the gram, if I promise to time travel and not forget the almanac?

ofc.
 
grayarea

grayarea

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3rd party is always a bad idea

yea 2x system works better. still creates the conflict of the person you work with knowing how much money ur wife has though or her expecting them to have what you have. standing in any line to buy or sell something is the same as counting another persons money. talking about what you bought or sold in that line of people to anyone that doesn't use the same line makes them count as a 3rd party. sorta like giving a person a map to The Beach (film) which is not as cool as going from your home (1) to the beach (2). some people like the part where they have to look for the beach and go around asking everyone for help and disrupting there life and the locals lives and then fighting to keep other people out of there beach but i don't.
 
P

Pimples

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Well let me tell you what I think. Cannabis prices are going to drop fast and drastically, this is starting in Colorado and will soon be the norm in most legal states. In California the price of outdoor units was 2500+ eight years ago and has dropped to an average of 1400 with all indications that the price will continue to drop and this is in a grey market with very little competition from the "big guys". Once legalization kicks in the true price of cannabis will start to prevail, most likely in the area of 100-500 per unit depending on quality and strain and that will eliminate most of the market place. Unfortunately, unlike alcohol great herb can be grown in very large batches and that will be problematic for everyone who considers themselves a craft grower. If you can find a way to be competitive in the low price range then it will be like most businesses. That's my two cents. For now don't be afraid of paper work, get politically involved, and mine the fuck out of this green gold while it's still a reality!
This^^^ Its not even federally legal yet..and super top shelf in Colorado is like 80 to 120 bucks. A zip. And prices are falling daily. Most of you are delusional if you think big timers cant grow top shelf indoors..outdoors...or in a greenhouse. And it will be 1 to 400 bucks a fukin pound by the time federal legalization settles down. You all in newly rec states arw still caught in the newness of it all. Wait till the dust settles. Especially with federal legalization. None of you will be turning on a light to grow a plant. Couple plants outside if that.
 
GrowGod

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This^^^ Its not even federally legal yet..and super top shelf in Colorado is like 80 to 120 bucks. A zip. And prices are falling daily. Most of you are delusional if you think big timers cant grow top shelf indoors..outdoors...or in a greenhouse. And it will be 1 to 400 bucks a fukin pound by the time federal legalization settles down. You all in newly rec states arw still caught in the newness of it all. Wait till the dust settles. Especially with federal legalization. None of you will be turning on a light to grow a plant. Couple plants outside if that.
Bullshit, I was at A Cut Above and they do have plenty of jars for $100 an ounce, but they also have patient reserve going for as high as 120$ a half ounce.
Please post picks of what you have seen for 80$ an ounce and show us how great it is:D
 
johnlevy

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Well with the latest developments and the growing demand for marijuana in the USA. i think there is more to see in this industry, more and more laws are passing which made to regulate its use. Govt has already legalized its use but only for the medical purpose. you need to be a registered user for taking all the benefits.
 
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