Longest cold spell Ive ever seen in 12 years on the farm. Below 0 every nite....
The moisture is needed and were getting pretty good storms...

this is the coldest winter in Ca. that i can remember

The proof--in as best terms as we're going to get it--has already been out there for some time. It has been published and re-published, hashed over and re-hashed, confirmed by many and even now by over 90% of the original notable scientists who were deemed "deniers".

I never called these dudes deniers because the jury was still out. By now almost everyone agrees, and the only people on the outs are your VERY fringe scientists--and a few guys who are staunch traditionalists and will not accept anything but solid physical proof (i.e. the worst of what climate change will bring would have to happen before they'd accept it--they do not ascribe to models). Even a good amount of those dudes have come over because of the northern ice melt.

I was on the fence--I had a gen chem professor who was a "denier" and he was a brilliant man and got me headed down the road to chemistry that I'm on. He really did his research and presented it well as to why he had his doubts.

Not only has he since changed his mind, but a physical chemistry professor at my university offered a course dealing with some of the types of modeling employed here--and other atmospheric science techniques/findings--and I came away convinced. That's about the best I can say to be honest.

Each person is going to make their own decision on this. I would just hope beyond hopes that the people who make the policy decisions are educated about the science that SHOULD BE behind them (but probably won't be and hasn't been so far).

Now, its just the "causes" of the change that are in question

been very little snow im my part of canada and last few days have been very warm.......been like this the lat 3-4 winters and when I was a kid winter was crazy here so damn cold and so much snow!

I remember march break being so cold and snowy when I was younger too and last year was short and t shirt weather during the break!

Haha need more proof of global warming or the gov. fuckin with the weather............it was 67 degrees here in the buckeye state yesterday........the average temp in ohio for this time of years is 18 degrees ...................somethins goin on......i can't even go snowboarding this year in my own state.....shits crazy! Take it easy

The last freeze has been later and colder for me as late as june21 35f ish and the first freeze this year was 35f ish first week in Sept. with that being said the weather is beautiful as usual but moreso like the middle of the days during transitions fall and spring are longer beautiful afternoons but the cold nights are also colder sooner and longer i may be nuking this but i think are mid afternoons are getting hotter and are early mornings 3am ish are getting colder....The rains have been coming if they come at all at once or in floods and my winters have been less and less snow and when it comes its usually later than usual like in Feb even early March... i dont know if i expressed what i notice well but i think our weather is returning to its extreme radical nature.....we call it different because what we have evolved in which is measured in a historical wink which is a blip in earths time line of weather is an anomaly this calm chill smooth transitioning seasonal weather is a fluke ALL of earths weather history has had extreme radicals primordial weather i think its called but thats what i believe earth is returning to a pattern that is indeed normal to it ........question is are we or better put have we been manipulating the weather for our own survival like we do indoor growing>??

That's a loaded post caveman.

I think in terms of what type of weather pattern we're gravitating towards, that is mostly known.

In a sense all we've done is sped up our cycle towards the next ice age. These things happen in cycles.

The weather extremes you're talking about had to do with earth's magnetic field--and they are not likely to return any time soon. We could see some weird and extreme weather, but I don't think you're looking for a frozen equator and hot poles (which is how shit was in the time you're referencing), shit isn't going to change that drastically.

Weather history goes something like this (paraphrased):

Ice Age------>Temperate weather (now)------>Tropical age (coming soon to a theater near you)---->Ice Age.


I can't think of a single scientist who has suggested we're heading towards something unpredictable. Quite the opposite they are concerned that we are speeding up our progress towards these changes when nothing but time could serve to help us tackle them as a species.

We need time to prepare for these changes, and if we keep speeding the process along (exponentially, as we are) then we won't have enough time to do so. That really is the big issue from the science wing--we know this is going to happen anyway, but it's going to be vastly destructive and we want to attenuate the speed with which it happens to us so that we can modulate our society for the changes.

New York will one day be under water. That happens whether or not we pump CO2 into the atmosphere. It just happens a little faster the more we pump.

Atmospheric concentrations (CO2, methane, etc) play an enormous role in all of this. Once we reach beyond a certain point (especially with methane, which is now being released very quickly due to warming) you can think of it as a switch being flipped. Once the switch is flipped, shit will progress downhill quickly.

The switch will trigger on its own no matter what--but by best estimates we've already sped this up by almost 200 years. We could really use those 200 years (and more gradual changes) to figure out, for instance, where we are going to grow food or where we are going to move everyone in New York to.

A super volcano or two or three erupting any where near the same place or time would speed it up faster than ten of our civilizations ..or intergalactical activity..and the time its happening in is incredibally fast considering earths glacial cylinders those timelines of weather patterns frozen in the Ice caps show the next ice age happening in the next 50 to 500 years that s right around the corner either number and no i dont have a bibliography for none of it .....hey squiggly do you know of any scientific back up to the instrumentation used to measure the atmospheres efficacy i mean the last time we talked about the ozone layer wholes or depletion was ages ago i wonder what shape its in now I feel i know feeling aren t science but i feel anyway that the more depleted our atmosphere is the faster and more difficult to measure the speed of our demise or earth as we know it even...

caveman4.20 said:

A super volcano or two or three erupting any where near the same place or time would speed it up faster than ten of our civilizations ..or intergalactical activity..and the time its happening in is incredibally fast considering earths glacial cylinders those timelines of weather patterns frozen in the Ice caps show the next ice age happening in the next 50 to 500 years that s right around the corner either number and no i dont have a bibliography for none of it .....hey squiggly do you know of any scientific back up to the instrumentation used to measure the atmospheres efficacy i mean the last time we talked about the ozone layer wholes or depletion was ages ago i wonder what shape its in now I feel i know feeling aren t science but i feel anyway that the more depleted our atmosphere is the faster and more difficult to measure the speed of our demise or earth as we know it even...

Click to expand...

Well, the ozone layer is doing quite a bit better than when it was at its worst. We really almost fucking extincted ourselves there for a second. We banned the CFCs that were causing the problem. They are still around but in that time they were ubiquitous--so widely used that the problem became an exponential one. Problem is, the CFCs didn't go up into the layer and react--they went up there and acted as catalysts for reactions that depleted the ozone. What this means is that each molecule of CFC that made it up there was never used up--but instead probably participated in millions upon millions of reactions before settling back to earth.

The Ozone layer, also, for the most part has nothing to do with any of this. The ozone layer serves to protect us from high-energy radiation (gamma rays mostly). It doesn't really do much to worsen the climate change problem. Actually having a bigger hole in the ozone layer might slow it down a bit (because the high energy radiation can destroy molecules like methane which act as greenhouse gases).

hmmmmm......does our ozone layer or atmosphere or both regenerate or can we measure that? And the High energy radiation and gamma rays dont i dont know if they do or dont but the heat from the sun does....but im not arguing Squiggly im sure by now you figured i ask you questions you can explain the answer better than me and you back it up better than me too but i dont have the experience research methods or time you have so thats why i ask you the questions i do and Thank you for your input its always significant!
Peace Caveman

Definitely the coldest weve seen it in my memory for the last month and a half,this is so cal for christs sake,its warmer back east than here right now,22 degrees at my place now and its 39 in NYC.

caveman4.20 said:

hmmmmm......does our ozone layer or atmosphere or both regenerate or can we measure that? And the High energy radiation and gamma rays dont i dont know if they do or dont but the heat from the sun does....but im not arguing Squiggly im sure by now you figured i ask you questions you can explain the answer better than me and you back it up better than me too but i dont have the experience research methods or time you have so thats why i ask you the questions i do and Thank you for your input its always significant!
Peace Caveman

Click to expand...

The ozone layer does regenerate, albeit slowly. I could write out all of the relevant chemical reactions if you want.

Basically the outer atmosphere is oxygen, then the ozone layer, and then free oxygen anions (single oxygen atoms instead of O2, which is oxygens natural diatomic state--the kind we breathe).

Ozone is created when a high energy photon strikes a diatomic oxygen molecule, this creates two oxygen anions (one of them a radical). The radical anion joins with another diatomic molecule to create O3+, or ozone.

The atmosphere itself does not regenerate strictly speaking. Instead it flows through a cycle here on earth.

Water can be split into new oxygen when it is in the atmosphere as water vapor. Oxygen can escape from mineral deposits and such--and it can also be liberated from molecules like CO2 by, for instance, cannabis. However, the oxygen we have here is ALL that we have--we cannot make more.

The earth is slowly leaking oxygen. The atmosphere is not tightly bound as most people envision it. As I said the outer atmosphere is oxygen--->ozone---->free oxygen molecules. those free oxygen molecules are so spread out and far apart in the outermost layer that they will only encounter another oxygen molecule about once ever 20 minutes. That is a long mf'ing time on the chemical scale--nevertheless many of these molecules float out into space never to be heard from again.

fishwhistle said:

Definitely the coldest weve seen it in my memory for the last month and a half,this is so cal for christs sake,its warmer back east than here right now,22 degrees at my place now and its 39 in NYC.

Click to expand...

ive noticed some attention on the oceans getting warmer too but thats an average i wouldnt doubt if its just as colder in places as it is warmer...in the ocean that is and more than likely on land too YO squiggly dont go out of your way or anything but whats up with Global Tilt is or did that happen to play a role in all this?

caveman4.20 said:

ive noticed some attention on the oceans getting warmer too but thats an average i wouldnt doubt if its just as colder in places as it is warmer...in the ocean that is and more than likely on land too YO squiggly dont go out of your way or anything but whats up with Global Tilt is or did that happen to play a role in all this?

Click to expand...

Some people characterize this as a chicken-before-the-egg argument, but it really isn't. Allow me to explain a bit.

Okay so we have three things in play here.

1. The "tilt" of earth's axis.

2. Global warming.

3. The ocean.


Okay so let's get 1 out of the way, as it's the lion's share of the discussion.

The tilt is affected by a fucking shitdickload of factors. Mass of the earth, distribution of weight on the earth, gravitational pull on the earth/from the earth, and then there's the fact that the tilt itself isn't perfectly aligned and has always been changing on it's own and would continue to do so even if the rest of these factors were held constant because of the nature of it's orbit and movement.

The mass of the earth, as we covered earlier--is changing, we're losing oxygen molecules. It happens very slowly, but it's also been happening since earth day #1.

The gravitational pulls slowly change as the orbits/axis of the earth/moon change--and these factors confound each other (i.e. you end up in a feedback loop, one effects the other which effects the original one which effects the other, etc. ad nauseum).

The biggest thing for this discussion to center on is the distribution of weight. The "global tilt" dudes will tell you that the axis is just tilting on it's own (and to some degree this is correct)--but they want you to believe it is wildly tilting on it's own. What we know from physics (an object in motion will stay in motion......) says that this can't be the case. Instead something about the planet must be changing.

We haven't seen big results here yet, but we DO know that they WILL happen (also from physics) if we warm the oceans past a certain amount. This is because increasing temperature causes liquid water to expand. So not only will we be melting polar ice caps and changing the weight distribution there--but we're actually going to expand the volume that each molecule of liquid water takes up, and even more significantly change the distribution of weight.

This change means the most because it is a change on the planet-scale. The ocean is basically everywhere, and there is a lot of it. We often hear we've only uncovered 20% of the land mass of earth, and the rest is a big blue mystery to us. The ocean more quickly changing, bigger, entity than just about anything else on earth.

Whether its man made or not, warming oceans are a scary prospect. We at the very least need to be absolutely DUMPING federal money into research into this. Really the biggest travesty of this problem is that the research isn't being properly funded. We won't even know what the fuck to do if this shit hits us soon, and we really don't know when it's going to hit us.

Our models show that things are shifting in the direction we expect them to--but as for when crazy shit will really start to kick off, we can't say--the recent hurricane for instance. We didn't predict that, and we don't know whether we can blame it on warming yet or not, but it's possible that we can.

There is some grey area here, and that's why you see inaction. Science does a really poor job of self-promotion when there are not absolutes involved. Absolutes are really where we, as scientists, do our best work. We can't get there yet with this, and part of that has to do with the lack of interest/belief/funding or however else you want to frame it.

The reason this is not a chicken-before-the-egg argument is that, while many of the factors involved here effect each other, the tilt of the axis does not actually affect the temperature of the oceans AS MUCH AS the opposite is true. So say we warm the oceans 10 degrees and the axis tilts 2 more. If we tilt the axis 2 to begin with, it'll probably warm it maybe 5 degrees (if it tilts the right way).

Of course you can end up with a feedback loop here (though there are limits to it, its not an infinite loop)--but the initial effect is a greater when you warm the ocean.

The amount the axis is tilting doesn't match up with the warming of the ocean--but the opposite might be true (that the warming of the ocean is tilting the axis some now--and will do so considerably more later).

mannnnkind......so that sounds like more of a wobble....just playing but for real it is an honor to talk about it HELL OF A THREAD MOGROW i dont know if this contributes but ive also noticed in my ALLERGIC reaction to ANYTHING that grows outside that my allergies have been going both Crazier and getting better for instance these weird ass warm fronts blooming shit in late Nov or Early in April then die off cuz of the warm front ending and normal cold or dry or both weather coming back.... I wonder if scientist are covering this news or whatever but im sure even New things are blooming that usually dont or atleast thats what my nose is telling me...

caveman4.20 said:

mannnnkind......so that sounds like more of a wobble....just playing but for real it is an honor to talk about it HELL OF A THREAD MOGROW i dont know if this contributes but ive also noticed in my ALLERGIC reaction to ANYTHING that grows outside that my allergies have been going both Crazier and getting better for instance these weird ass warm fronts blooming shit in late Nov or Early in April then die off cuz of the warm front ending and normal cold or dry or both weather coming back.... I wonder if scientist are covering this news or whatever but im sure even New things are blooming that usually dont or atleast thats what my nose is telling me...

Click to expand...

Yes this is widespread (changing of allergy season)--there is definitely some research into it, although I'm not going to dig for it.

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2012 was warmest and second most extreme year on record for the contiguous U.S.​

2012 was a historic year for extreme weather that included drought, wildfires, hurricanes and storms; however, tornado activity was below average
2012 marked the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States with the year consisting of a record warm spring, second warmest summer, fourth warmest winter and a warmer-than-average autumn. The average temperature for 2012 was 55.3°F, 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest year.
The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, making it the 15th driest year on record for the nation. At its peak in July, the drought of 2012 engulfed 61 percent of the nation with the Mountain West, Great Plains, and Midwest experiencing the most intense drought conditions. The dry conditions proved ideal for wildfires in the West, charring 9.2 million acres — the third highest on record.
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• Spring started off exceptionally warm with the warmest March on record, followed by the fourth warmest April and second warmest May. The season’s temperature was 5.2°F above average, making it easily the warmest spring on record, surpassing the previous record by 2.0°F. The warm spring resulted in an early start to the 2012 growing season in many places, which increased the loss of water from the soil earlier than what is typical. In combination with the lack of winter snow and residual dryness from 2011, the record warm spring laid the foundation for the widespread drought conditions in large areas of the U.S. during 2012.
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squiggly said:

The proof--in as best terms as we're going to get it--has already been out there for some time. It has been published and re-published, hashed over and re-hashed, confirmed by many and even now by over 90% of the original notable scientists who were deemed "deniers".

I never called these dudes deniers because the jury was still out. By now almost everyone agrees, and the only people on the outs are your VERY fringe scientists--and a few guys who are staunch traditionalists and will not accept anything but solid physical proof (i.e. the worst of what climate change will bring would have to happen before they'd accept it--they do not ascribe to models). Even a good amount of those dudes have come over because of the northern ice melt.

I was on the fence--I had a gen chem professor who was a "denier" and he was a brilliant man and got me headed down the road to chemistry that I'm on. He really did his research and presented it well as to why he had his doubts.

Not only has he since changed his mind, but a physical chemistry professor at my university offered a course dealing with some of the types of modeling employed here--and other atmospheric science techniques/findings--and I came away convinced. That's about the best I can say to be honest.

Each person is going to make their own decision on this. I would just hope beyond hopes that the people who make the policy decisions are educated about the science that SHOULD BE behind them (but probably won't be and hasn't been so far).

Click to expand...

I think the only scientist left standing was hired by the Koch brothers or Murdock, can't remember which, but he was a hired gun scientist who was in the mix of that whole Iceland email scandal.. The thing is all the data they had was right on and "Their Scientists" Buckled.. There is no doubt any longer the salinity of the ocean will be effected and cause the same thing that happened the last time the ocean salinity was diluted with fresh glacier thaw.. It's a cycle, the that is the beginning of another ice age and we will be seeing some strange things happen, like tradewinds change, hot were it's cold, cold where it's hot like right now here in AZ, we were colder than alaska last night. it's not just a cold snap at 4 or 5 am and then we bounce back up.. it's been cold, breezy, reminds me of winter coming in the mountains.

When That last holdout scientist was pressed if man caused it, he wouldn't answer I assume for political reasons, but he did state we are not helping.