Lack of Vertical Integration Will Kill the Basement Grower

[ttystikk]

We are at the tail end of marijuana prohibition, so that Federal Domino might fall faster than people expect- like the Berlin Wall, perhaps.

I hope it takes a few years yet.

 

[Mr Dank]

Hey, I am learning how "not to share" with the best of them! At least you got a Dispensary named after one of your strains, although the Golden Goat sells some of the crappiest weed in town, at least it's something......

ugh....don't even get me started. I was told the owner who named it doesn't puff, and used google to find what strain to name his shop after

 

[mr duder]

Your 2000 light grow info is interesting. If they hit 2 units per light that would be 4k units every 60-70 days? At 500 per unit that's 2,000,000.00 five times a year. Why would they push it for 500 a unit when they clearly could do it for much more? Also when it comes to retail sales Hilder has said they will continue to enforce federal law so goooooood luck with that. In 5 years I could see life as we know it over but as long as people are paying 60 an 1/8 th in half of our states I don't think it's time to panic just yet.

 

[squiggly]

All this "big business" talk only works if it is made federally legal, fully.

I am very well read on marijuana policy and I have never once seen an article where anyone in control has even suggested anything close to federal legalization. Obama just released the budget for this 2nd term, and there is 100's of millions available for the DEA.

So what are we talking about here? lol

This assumes that people can't spend lots of money or go after commercialization of the product without the federal go-ahead, and that's a totally unfounded and improper assumption to make.

There's nothing which says that the future Budweiser of marijuana won't spawn in Colorado under the new recreational model. You can't make that prediction. If you were to follow economic principles and what history has told us the exact opposite is true. Whoever sets up in colorado will be poised to move quickly into new states when they legalize (or if the federal government legalizes).

You're splitting hairs here. The point is basement growers, excepting really amazing ones, will be priced out of the market.

 

[ttystikk]

So find another niche in the market. I can confidently walk into damn near any indoor commercial grow op on the planet andfind ways to save them money. In most cases, a LOT of money. What I need to do now is figure out how to convert this skill into an income.

 

[JeromeGarcia]

I can't see supply keeping up with demand for the first few years.

If the existing dispensaries get a 1 year moratorium they will have the potential to suppress the price as they can expand greatly during that time if they are the only game in town and they just increased their business by 1000% percent, don't you think?

I'm sure people have discussed the price of mj a lot on here. The cheapest I have heard it grown for, by a guy that employes 140+ people, was $600/lb. They sell for 115-185/oz.

 

[PButter]

The only thing I see slowing these 'legal' grows down is them getting caught selling out the back door. The cat is out 0f the bag.

 

[Tripsick]

Get a better product and don't give it away. Money wont buy everything but it will do a decent enough job. An Ounce of high end wax would have to be under 100 dollars before i shut off my lights. even then a few Outdoor plants and i'm set for a while and that cost me all of nothing. Adapt or perish but definitely embrace this new freedom. Just because person makes a fortune by doing what you do doesnt mean they are taking money directly from you. There are Lots of people and lots of money to go around. And remember People Hate Corporate culture and products.. Well at least enough of them are out there and especially in the cannabis culture to keep you in business. i'm sure you will all figure it out.. you got this far.

 

[mr duder]

Colorado has 5.1 million people. The USA has 313 million. I don't see prices going to far down anytime soon.

 

[ftwendy]

Lower or erase penalties and the market will open wide. Both sides of it: supply & demand.

 

[ttystikk]

I think prices will lurch, but ultimately keep falling as more and more capacity dogpiles on... and just like everything else, eventually there will be too much of it.

Greed will drive legalization! Where have we heard this before?!

 

[squiggly]

I think prices will lurch, but ultimately keep falling as more and more capacity dogpiles on... and just like everything else, eventually there will be too much of it.

Greed will drive legalization! Where have we heard this before?!

That's absolutely right.

Literally everything is hinged on how colorado does this and whether or not the fed lets it slide.

If this is allowed to go on, it's going to set off a domino effect that could move incredibly fast. Fast enough that it could possibly become a REAL issue in 2016 presidential elections. I'm not holding my breath for that but if there's enough money being left on the table you can bet the government will want to dig its hands in.

However it could go the other direction and we could see the feds stamp all over it. My hope is that Obama's justice department will let it slide. I understand why he doesn't want to be seen as the pot president, but I don't think he should want to be seen as the anti-pot president either. If he kills this legislation for no good reason that's what he'll go down as ultimately.

That said, it needs to be the business of the Colarado legislature to make sure not to give him any good reasons to kill it (which is why addressing the interstate commerce issue is very important), because I don't think he will be seen as being complicit with this to the point of ignoring federal law for the sake of recreational weed smoking (and I wouldn't blame him for that if that's what he was expected to do).

I'm an atheist, so let Einstein, Carl Sagan, and Richard Dawkins be my witness--if Obama kills this legislation without an exceedingly good reason, I will renounce all support for him. I still think he will have ended up being better overall for pot heads than Romney would've been, but it'll be the last time I'll speak of Obama fondly.

 

[ttystikk]

I think the Feds are going to take one last run at shutting things down before public opinion forces them to cave. I don't think it will come with Mr. Obama's blessing, but rather in spite of his best wishes. His appointment to head the DEA, Michele Leonhart, blew up in his face to a great extent because- so the story goes- she apparently deceived him as to her real feelings about marijuana legalization.

They'll crack down again, there will be a big public backlash, and then it will be rescheduled. Just a guess...

On the subject of guesses, the Repubs could win the White House in the next election and decide to really crack down. Big public backlash, Los of public gnashing of teeth, similar ultimate result- only longer, more drawn out and ultimately more muddled. In short, typically American.

 

[true grit]

Well of course there is gonna be walmarts, and regardless of their quality they are not gonna sell themselves short when they can only sell 1/8 and 1/4 oz's at a time. Broken down they will make bank regardless and down the line production knows it too. Again niche market for dank growers if thats what you feel like you can do, its not like they were gonna let basement growers buy a license and keep growing in the basement... just sayin.

 

[fadetoblack1]

schedule 2 would drive the price up. You would only be able to receive your meds from a doctor. The insurance companies would have to start paying for it. It would be like Codeine or Viagra. I heard Viagra costs around $1800 for a 100 pills. Billed to your insurance company of course.

 

[Texas Kid]

My 90 day supply of Codeine cost $4 bucks at Walmart...same for my muscle relaxers..$4 bucks...now dronabinol is another story all together..it is schedule 1 just like weed and still riding the name brand (marinol) cash cow

 

[altitudefarmer]

I will hang my lights up...when I can use the sun exclusively.
I don't think we need to panic over prices just yet, although I have seen the prices of beasters drop to about 1400/bow...
Fire still moves at 22-24 around here. Where it moves to is better left undiscussed, I imagine. :-)

 

[green punk]

I will hang my lights up...when I can use the sun exclusively.
I don't think we need to panic over prices just yet, although I have seen the prices of beasters drop to about 1400/bow...
Fire still moves at 22-24 around here. Where it moves to is better left undiscussed, I imagine. :)

Its been 1400 here since the 90's. Anyone swinging that shit is smoking some AAA. And hauling it to IL, WI, MN etc.

 

[pugliese63]

Perhaps in the future we might look at the specialty coffee industry. Single origin and small farm lots are in more demand now than ever. Look at the prices. That's due to buyers getting involved at the level of direct trade. Working directly with farmers has created incentives for them to continually improve quality. These farmers are compensated far better than commercial growers although the production is far less.

There will always be the dedicated Folgers/Maxwell house drinkers. The consumer is far more educated now than ever and the coffee market has begun to reflect this with the availability of incredible lots of coffee. Coffee buyers offer a wealth of information about their product which empowers the consumer.

Cannabis growers should begin a similar approach. Today's cannabis consumer is equally educated and aware of what's out there.

It's not the "beasters or budweiser" market we're after. There's no way to compete with the factory growers. The market niche for above average cannabis has already been indirectly created. By continually offering rare and unique strains grown with the utmost care is the first step in securing this market for the small independent grower/producer.

We can see this in the wine industry. Its no secret that Cali has had a wine glut for decades but yet Opus One and Caymus Special Select continue to sell out at prices far above average.

As independent growers we can do same thing. Availability creates market demand. We've all seen what limited seed drops can go for. Same for cannabis.

Additionally, independent growers will have to incorporate better business practices to survive. Paying retail for nutrients and supplies will no longer be practical. Packaging will have to improve and become standardized along with labeling/information about the strain. All this will affect the cost of production. Not to mention all the paperwork that will come along with it. Its a business.

I think the future can bright for independent producers as long as we prepare for it by looking at other specialty markets and learning. Education of the consumer and quality of product have to be paramount.

Unfortunately there will be casualties. You'll have to be creative and dedicated to survive.

 

[sanvanalona]

Its been 1400 here since the 90's. Anyone swinging that shit is smoking some AAA. And hauling it to IL, WI, MN etc.

i personally havent seen beaster since 06, have you seen any since?

In nor cal prices are around >1g during harvest for things that are truly fire! its astonishing watching this go down, and while i am like many of you and trying to figure out how/where i fit in, i am still thankful for this new day!