Not to mention established FARMERS aren't they the most prepared and are they organizing???

true grit said:

Sorry but regardless of how you feel, thats still not the case. they have already been granted grow licenses and much of that won't be talked about until they are ready for rescheduling- which until they get what they want ready why would it be brought to public attention. They have also been looking into other avenues of cornering the market. So believe what ya want, but they are ready to get involved.

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There are other reasons why they have been granted licenses. Keep in mind you're talking to someone who has his finger on the pulse of pharmaceutical companies day in and day out. You have WAY more experience when it comes to pot than I do--but when it comes to this I have expertise because it's what I want to get into.

The reason big pharma wants to grow pot is because they want to do research to figure out how to make synthetic versions of the healing chemicals within that they CAN patent. Recently research has shown that cannabinoids can have a huge effect on blood pressure. Blood pressure medicines are a holy grail in big pharma for several reasons:

1. The ones we have are notorious for shitty side effects.

2. They often can have a big effect on erectile dysfunction.

3. Most people need them at one point or another.

This is the main reason big pharma wants to play with pot as of right now--and they've come out and said as much if you feel like looking further into it. The pharma world is BOOMING right now with the knowledge that CB receptors are targets for blood pressure manipulation.

Once again I'll say it plainly, and everyone else can decide what they think reality is. A plant that just grows out of the ground like that and cannot be patented is SO FAR from the business model that big pharma gives a shit about that they would almost NEVER get involved. The margins are so incredibly low (and the consumers so picky in this instance) that any drug trials would see them in the negatives for literally 25 years before they started turning profit. Utilizing their resources in this way would waste 100million a month if they didn't produce new patentable drugs. Scientists and R&D are expensive.

It just isn't their market territory, and as TK posted above they have EVERY reason to want to keep pot illegal forever. They'd rather make bastardized versions of the active ingredients, patent them, and sell them to you for a 2000% markup. This is what pharmaceutical companies DO. They don't grow fields and fields of drugs and sell them, it's not how they are optimized and it goes against every business interest they have. They will LOSE money if marijuana is made legal, no ifs ands or buts--and they know it. If they are gearing up for anything it is to squash this movement underfoot. They will fight it to the last breath. If and only if it is made federally legal will they even consider getting into the fray, and even then you'd be lucky to see them do it under a subsidiary with limited resources. This is so far from their bread and butter that it's not even funny, and what they know is that Phillip Morris will come in and take a fat shit all over them if they try to waste resources on this. It's not what they are good at.

Honestly thinking big pharma will get involved in this isn't backed up by any reasonable argument aside from paranoia about big pharma (which is probably warranted tbh).

Everything we know about them says they want this to go away quick fast and in a hurry.

Now, that said, big pharma owns like 50% of everything so seeing an entity OWNED by them doing some shit in this field wouldn't be out of the question, but that is SOOOOO different from like GlaxoSmithKline growing pot and selling GSK OG Kush in stores. It's not gonna happen.

If you see "pharma" get involved it will be through startups and smaller companies who will be fighting against the considerable force of larger pharma companies who want to see this shit squashed like the irritating insect it is to them.

I see Hemp production was mentioned in the write ups.
Remember Hemp For Victory? ...in the midwest you can still see fields of wild hemp..even when they spend huge amounts of money to get rid of it it...and it grows back again and again. We're talking Hemp here...ditchweed.
I think American scientists could use it for a million purposes...beyond Medical Cannabis...and should.
..but the crossroads are here...we have hard times coupled with insane Corporate greed...and the attention is dollars "right now" no matter what the cost.
If you really think about it..maybe the history that Cannabis has endured in the US proves that Cannabis is in charge...spiritually. It came by ways of people's hearts as medicine.

Oh I agree whole heartedly with what you are talking about their approach to getting involved. I definitely know how the pharma industry works-my family has been involved for most of my life. And even they believe/see pharma going into this business and have for some time at varying levels.

Your assumption that they would get in at the level of growing or selling OG kush or buds period is simply not where they are going with it. They have been making and marketing concentrates for years now in foreign countries and imo will take that to the next level here and have already begun the "gmo" process of databanking in foreign countries.

Those grow licenses for research that you mentioned, still means they are getting involved in this business. Those phytocannabinoids are hard to replicate to patent, they know this and know it will take some time. I bet they get a bit more involved than folks realize before they bust out their own patents.

true grit said:

Sorry bud, but ive def heard of pharma trying to get involved already over the last several years in some interesting ways. Heard they already hold some licensing that isn't much talked about as well.

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It's the devil in the Nanny State, yet they do hospital tests with pure thc and cbd IV, and have licensed grows for GW, with Otsuka being the sole US distributor.

"GW and Otsuka are collaborating on the US development of Sativex. The initial target indication for FDA approval is cancer pain. Sativex is currently undergoing a Phase IIb/III clinical trial in cancer pain."

I think this is right up Tobacco's alley anyway (it's a plant, they already fight the gov't daily, this one doesn't kill people [rebranding]), so disagree they are fully rallying against it. No good for the Alcohol industry, besides dank brewers, but big alcohol would be fully against it.
Pharma is already there, recreationally? Why not, plenty of 'medicines' or derivatives are spun off into commercial, non-prescription, offerings.

Pharma doesn't grow fields of drugs so are they not a part of poppy fields for their fucking opiates!!!!

Lastly, Hemp is the game changer.
Annual, little to no ferts, water...
Plenty of fiber and fuel.

Somehow during WWII, when we were pushing efficiency on everything we had, Hemp was more efficient than Forests....

But that is also the same reason I stay out of California, somehow my cigarettes cause cancer once I cross the border :)

Dopegeist said:

Lastly, Hemp is the game changer.
Annual, little to no ferts, water...
Plenty of fiber and fuel.

Somehow during WWII, when we were pushing efficiency on everything we had, Hemp was more efficient than Forests....

But that is also the same reason I stay out of California, somehow my cigarettes cause cancer once I cross the border :)

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^^^double like!

Here's a study by Colorado Futures Center analyzing the state's likely income under a64. They're concluding a lb will wholesale at $600 and retail at $2959.

cctt said:

Here's a study by Colorado Futures Center analyzing the state's likely income under a64. They're concluding a lb will wholesale at $600 and retail at $2959.

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Interesting study. 600 a unit for indoor with the current people producing it seems a but cheap. I'm not saying it can't be done. But in a for profit model that doesn't leave much wiggle room. The Rand study has major flaws IMO.

I will refuse to smoke ANY indoor that wholesales for $600. NASTY. The outdoor/greenhouse game out here is what's gonna be bringing profits at $600. Now, we all know how much spider mites LOVE hot and dry weather. How will these giant BEASTER greenhouses control mites? I really hope they enforce testing for pesticides and fungicides. also, with the hemp being planted, what will the male pollen do to these large greenhouse grows?

3k retail means it will be at the same level as Medical for the most part. I'll be Interested to see if Med sales go up or down once this comes to market. Also at that price small home growers won't be out out of business. Has anyone even heard a whisper of the Feds coming in?

mr duder said:

Interesting study. 600 a unit for indoor with the current people producing it seems a but cheap. I'm not saying it can't be done. But in a for profit model that doesn't leave much wiggle room. The Rand study has major flaws IMO.

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,
"we estimate that marijuana will cost $592/lb to grow in 2014" pg 4. 4th paragraph
And I doubt that is adding in grower time as an expense. All retained earnings in this model.
I think they messed up by putting cost to grow in the thang, and not what the GROWER WILL SELL IT FOR.
Also, in mature markets, product differentiation is huge. No mention of it. Very unsophisticated model. Probably took a grad student an evening to write the whole thing.

And their 'retailer markup rate' is fucked too.
"Retailer Markup Rate at 175%"
That's coke not weed.

Oh I keep reading, it keeps getting better.
"According to the investor relations website for Medical Marijuana Inc.
, consumable (or edible)marijuana accountsfor 38% of the total market for medicalmarijuana"
I think he means 'investor relations webpage', but anywho, that's where I go to get unbiased, accurate data whenever I'm preparing an important research paper. Gotta let them know, you get the facts :)

In conclusion, if it weren't a university, you'd be fired for such crap.

Whatever they do, we can rest assured it will not be anything close to a 'free market' approach.

This Charlie Brown and Phylliss are CrAzY!!!!

"Consistent with Amendment 64,the excise tax likely will be structured as 15% of the wholesale cost of
marijuana. In the current vertically integrated system for medical marijuana, with few or no arm’s‐
length transactions between cultivator and seller, it is difficult to ascertain the wholesale cost of
marijuana. Our assumption of $600/lb. based on estimates by the Rand Institute and adjusted for
inflation results in our $21.7 million estimate for the revenue potential from the excise tax, which falls
significantly short of the target of $40 Million for school construction. In order to generate $40 Million
for the BEST program,the cost to grow a pound of marijuana would need to be in the range of
$1,100/lb., a level almost two times the Rand estimate adjusted for inflation and one which risks raising
the retail price of marijuana to a level that would encourage the continuation of a black market."

So with 16 in a pound @ 185 = 3 grand a pound, yet if it gets wholesaled at more than $600, it fucks up everyone elses cut, and now we have to sell it for 370 oz...LOL. They are pretty intent on that keystone markup - taxes for the middle man.

This is just tooo funny...Yeah, go Legalization! This is going to be some funny shit, I can't wait till the lawmakers start blaming the people for not being able to 'make it work'.

Dopegeist said:

After the last three years?

Anyhow, they got to keep it high, otherwise where's the profits for Pharma outfits if your Meds will only cost $5/pack. That's 'Marlboro Country' there.

And with their success at seed to sale, I see no reason for them not to shoot for the stars and beyond.

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Big Pharma and Big Tobacco are most definitely looking at Colorado.

Dopegeist said:

It's the devil in the Nanny State, yet they do hospital tests with pure thc and cbd IV, and have licensed grows for GW, with Otsuka being the sole US distributor.

"GW and Otsuka are collaborating on the US development of Sativex. The initial target indication for FDA approval is cancer pain. Sativex is currently undergoing a Phase IIb/III clinical trial in cancer pain."

I think this is right up Tobacco's alley anyway (it's a plant, they already fight the gov't daily, this one doesn't kill people [rebranding]), so disagree they are fully rallying against it. No good for the Alcohol industry, besides dank brewers, but big alcohol would be fully against it.
Pharma is already there, recreationally? Why not, plenty of 'medicines' or derivatives are spun off into commercial, non-prescription, offerings.

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Quite an astute observation. The security requirements with 106-1284 have pretty much solved Denver's warehouse vacancy problems of years past.

The next emerging industry in Colorado will be how to protect large scale commercial greenhouses. Likely things you see at prisons, double fencing, razor wire, etc. Commercial fertilizer companies are starting to do more and more business with medical/commercial grows, and that will only increase.

Once farmers figure out how to properly protect an outdoor greenhouse, and they see their electric bills drop 99%, they'll absolutely go outside. Big Pharma and Big Tobacco are the biggest of very few people who could pull off a large scale commercial grow of a flowering plant. Efficient greenhouses would only have to occasionally use supplemental lighting, and only for a few hours a day at most.

When Big Tobacco comes to town and buys a 20 acre facility and can manufacture meds at $600/lb, most current shops would be screwed. There is no way they aren't looking at these states when they see how much profit these commercial grows are making per sq foot.

Ya when the Federal Gov legalizes it or allows full tilt production then yes a lot of people will get involved. I would say anyone with a couple of million and the knowledge will go for it. But in the next 4 years I don't see that happening. The Farmers that understand business and how to evolve will be just fine. The ones that sit around and think that nothing will change will be in for a surprise.

It's funny because it seems like people in hear are almost stiring the pot(no pun intended) just to get people worried. Quality will always sell. If it's legal than you won't get paid for the risk anymore. But people can still feed their families. Also there were still 750,000 arrests for weed last year in the US. So I don't see the big boys coming in just yet.